What is the price of the DOLAR BLUE TODAY, Thursday, June 11, 2020

The Dolar blue It remained stable this Thursday and was located around $ 124 for sale and $ 114 for the buying end, while the Government faces the final stretch of what will be the search to bring positions closer to the bondholders, and a coupon tied to agricultural exports is shown as the key option to unlock the debt swap.

This occurs in the midst of restrictions on buying the $ 200 for savings imposed by the Central Bank and while the Government continued advancing in the negotiations to close the debt swap with private creditors.

In addition, investors looked closely at the stock quotes, which operated low.

The dollar counted with liquidation it traded at $ 112.23.

For his part, the dollar bag or MEP it coupled with the slight downtrend and traded at $ 107.57.

In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency traded $ 69.31, always under the watchful eye of the central bank (BCRA).

As noted above, the Dolar blue It traded at $ 124 in caves in the Buenos Aires downtown.

In the official retail market, the North American currency traded on average to $ 72.34 in agencies and banks in the city of Buenos Aires, so the tourist dollar which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the COUNTRY tax, sold for $ 94.

According to the usual survey that the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, the sale prices were as follows:

– Galicia: $ 73.10

– Nation: $ 71.50

– ICBC: $ 72.70

– BBVA: 72.60

– Supervielle: $ 72

– Santander: $ 72.50

– HSBC: $ 72

– Macro: $ 71.75

The Dolar blue, which was located at $ 124, does not have an official price, but its value comes out of the average price at unofficial exchange places.

The exchange clamp, a measure implemented to control the price of the currency and take care of the Central Bank’s reserves, reactivated parallel market operations, where users seek to avoid the cap of $ 200 per month for savings.

Meanwhile, the risk country It is located around 2,614 basis points.

Argentines buy more dollars despite the stocks and withdraw deposits

The solidarity dollar purchases grew in May, to the rhythm of uncertainty and new restrictions that prevent buying tickets on the Stock Market and on the official market at the same time.

Banks recognize that there was a significant use of homebanking platforms to carry out operations in foreign currency. However, customers do not always immediately ask for a turn at the branch to withdraw their deposits.

“Homebanking purchases doubled, in line with what happened in the rest of the market. However, there is no immediate transfer of those acquisitions to branch shifts. Many customers buy dollars but will not withdraw them from their accounts“they explained in an entity.

In another financial institution they expressed themselves along the same lines: “It is under the requirement of shifts to operate in foreign currency”

From a third bank, they said: “In May we had a total of requested shifts over 36,000. Of which, 10% was associated with operations in foreign currency“

During the first weeks of customer service, the same entities admitted that up to 45% of the requested shifts by customers were to operate in dollars per box. Many even took a double shift: to withdraw the tickets and take them to their safes The same day.

The exchange gap, despite the permanent hardening of the stocks, remains comfortable above 50%, both regarding stock prices and the blue dollar. In that framework, the little ones savers see the official dollar “cheap” and seek to secure their monthly quota of $ 200.

Even when not everyone who buys dollars by homebanking goes to the branch to take the tickets, the truth is that foreign currency deposits fall more than they rise.

Since the possibility of go to the branch to withdraw dollars, last April 20, private sector deposits in foreign currency lost more than $ 1.4 billion. This is 56% of the total outflow of dollars from banks so far this year.

Last month in particular just over $ 900 million left from bank accounts (which include savings banks, checking and demand accounts). “Deposits in dollars fell 5% on average against the previous month and add the tenth consecutive month in decline“said the consultancy LCG.

And he added that “although it dates from 10 months ago, the outflow of dollar deposits accelerated in the last month“. In that sense, the drip was at a rate of $ 47 million average per day, against an average of $ 18 million in April and $ 23 million in March.

Deposits in foreign currency accumulate 10 months of decline. A lot of the dollars that leave the system end up in the safes.

Towards the end of May, the private sector bank deposits (excluding fixed terms) totaled $ 16,852 and they remain around that value in the first days of June. The Central Bank (BCRA) recognized the drop but stressed that “they are still well above the lows observed in early 2014”

Unlike what happened with sight accounts, fixed dollar terms increased in May. Thus, a report by First Capital Group noted: “Deposits in dollars in the private sector decreased 5% in the month. In year-on-year terms, the decrease is 45%. Fixed terms in dollars increased 5% in May ($ 190 million in the month) while savings banks in dollars decreased 7% (u $ s870 million)“

Think about reservations

The withdrawal of dollar deposits can also be translate into a decrease in international reserves Since a part of them corresponds to the minimum cash that the banks immobilize in the BCRA to respond to an eventual withdrawal of deposits.

Since the reopening of cash desks in branches, Central’s coffers decreased by just over $ 1 billion, even after the currency purchases that the agency managed to make in recent days.

The reinforcement of the exchange rate helped the BCRA to buy back dollars and reinforce its reserves

However, the outflow of deposits was not the main driver of this fall, which was mainly explained by foreign exchange sales in the market and payments abroad. In April, the BCRA had sold $ 547 million and continued to shed reserves last month.

As he acknowledged in his May monthly report: “The BCRA was a net seller of foreign exchange for US $ 711 million, while there was an additional drop of around US $ 400 million for payments to international organizations. “

Conversely, Due to the “solidarity” dollar purchase, the minimum cash had a positive balance: it added $ 554 million to reserves in April and another $ 352 million in May.

In recent weeks the BCRA made at least two decisions that helped it buy back reserves in the official market:

–Prevented the simultaneous purchase of Mep dollar or cash with liquidation and solidarity dollar, since the operations must be 90 days apart.

–Restricted access to the foreign exchange market by the importers in 4 cases.

Further, returned to trading in the futures market, with the intention of gradually managing devaluation expectations.

Within this framework of greater restrictions, the BCRA managed to stop selling currencies since May 29, one day after announcing the obstacles to importers. From that day until today, the body that Miguel Pesce leads returned to buy dollars in the official market. Entity sources they calculate the purchases in more than u $ s800 million, they went directly to reinforce the reserves.

Is inflation waking up ?: the dreaded effect

As indicated by Fernando Marull, partner of the FM&A consultancy, the agricultural sector continued with currency settlement at similar levels for the past few days but demand fell due to new obstacles and the BCRA took the opportunity to buy back currencies. “So, net reserves would have returned to a level of $ 9.3 billion“the economist calculated in relation to the fire power of the BCRA in the market.

On the contrary, economists warn that this mechanism that hinders imports and allows the monetary authority to gain reserves could wake up to inflation in the coming months.

Products with high import content, such as electronic devices, could experience an increase in their prices due to the latest exchange rate restrictions

“The replacement cost uncertainty started to impact prices, “said Marull and mentioned the example of the retouching of prices for technological products during the past week.

“The BCRA had a benefit in curbing the bleeding of reserves, but the cost is that it woke up the dollarized goods. This, plus some normalization of post-quarantine activity, will lead us to leave behind the inflation levels of 1.5 / 1.6% in April and May, to return to pre-quarantine levels of 3% per month“, he claimed.

Ecolatina agreed on the diagnosis: “Since replacement cost is a key variable in determining the price of a product, and from now on many companies will have to import using dollars saved that are worth more than those bought in the official market, your products are likely to go up in price. In summary, the parallel quotes will have a most significant impact on inflation“

And they added that many firms will directly choose to stop importing under current conditions. Thus, Ecolatina concluded that the measure will act as a kind of “disguised devaluation” on those firms that are outside the official exchange market.

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