In the parallel market, the currency is trading at $ 128. Look at what the price of the blue dollar is today and how they quote the dollar Stock market and the cash with liquidation
The Dolar blue Today, Tuesday, May 19, 2020, it is trading at $ 128 for the sale and $ 118 for the buying end, after retreating 10 pesos on Monday. The gap with the official retailer it stands at 82.8%.
Meanwhile, the stock quotes They are also on a downward trend, due to the strong controls implemented by the National Government.
So the dollar MEP operates at $ 115.50 while the dollar “counted with liqui“records a value of $ 118.70.
This occurs in a market shaken by the global recession derived from the coronavirus (Covid-19).
For his part, the retail dollar operates around $ 70.26, so the value of the tourist dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAIS tax, on average was $ 91.33.
In the segment wholesaler, the US currency is located at $ 67.82, always under the control of the Central Bank (BCRA).
According to the usual survey that the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, the sale prices were as follows:
– Galicia: $ 70.50
– Nation: $ 70
– ICBC: $ 70.70
– BBVA: $ 70.85
– Supervielle: $ 70
– Santander: $ 69.50
– HSBC: $ 70.25
– Macro: $ 70.25
Meanwhile, the dollar blue is offered for $ 128 in caves in the downtown area of Buenos Aires
The blue dollar does not have an official price, but its value comes out of the average price at exchange places. The exchange clamp, a measure implemented to control the price of the currency and take care of the Central Bank’s reserves, reactivated parallel market operations, where users seek to avoid the cap of $ 200 per month for savings.
In the futures market Rofex contracts that are negotiated expiring at the end of September close at $ 58,300 per lot.
In turn, the risk country for Argentina it is located at 2,694 basis points.
In the last days, the central bank launched a series of measures to promote investments in pesos and encourage the settlement of dollars. For example, it provided that financial institutions should offer savers a minimum interest rate of 26.6% on fixed-term loans.
Also, he decided to encourage financial institutions to go out and capture DIVA deposits (Variable Interest Deposit) linked to the price of cereals and oilseeds, in order to attract producers and provide guarantees that they maintain the value of the harvest.
An eloquent symptom of nervousness in the City: coverage with the future dollar is record
In case confirmations about the expectations of exchange volatility that there is in the financial market, yesterday a data caught the attention of analysts: in the Rofex future market interest contracts opened by 2,750 million of dollars maturing in June, a volume that had not occurred since August 29 of last year, just when controls were applied to the exchange rate.
The data is the definitive symptom that many players expect there to be a new devaluationIn this case, the official dollar, which they bet on the Rolex, would be $ 70 in June and $ 87 in December.
As reported by operators familiar with this operation, the great increase in the volume of coverage occurred in the last month, when almost $ 1 billion was added. A fact that is interpreted as a typical defensive attitude: while they wait to see what movements the Government will make, many choose to cover themselves by intervening in the futures markets.
“The truth is that talking about open interest for $ 2.7 billion makes you remember other times,” he pointed Sebastian Centurionanalyst ABC Exchange Market. From the Rofex they recalled that, after reaching a similar level in August 2019, open interest contracts fell sharply between December and January, and only began to rebound a little more than a couple of weeks ago.
However, this trading volume has not been seen for a long time, revealing a lot of expectations about a possible new devaluation. “Really everyone is waiting for the mystery to be revealed: whether the gap will narrow or they will try to keep the dollar ironed as in 2015,” said Centurión, reflecting the concern that the entire market has today.
The future market grows in line with the devaluation expectation in the City
Meanwhile, a report by the brokerage firm Cohen observed: “The loss of reserves that has been registered daily in the MULC in times where the BCRA is a buyer of currencies seasonally, led to several investors deciding to hedge with dollar futures increasing open interest on Rofex futures last week to $ 572 million. ”
Other analysts directly link this market situation with the uncertainty regarding the end that the debt negotiations. In fact, that would be what is justifying the large concentration of short-term contracts, due in June.
On that point, consultant Salvador Di Stefano observed: “Many investors will take a precautionary position on the future dollar, since an eventual breakout would trigger it to rise.”
And he adds that the position in June, at a price of $ 71.12, is the most recommended: “It has a difference of 5.0% compared to the spot price, and the Government has been devaluing at a rate of 3% per month, which would not generate a great loss in the future if there is an agreement, and before an eventual default would have a juicy gain”
In other words, the logic of this bet is that if the negotiations end badly and, therefore, that triggers a devaluation, the fact of securing the dollar at $ 71.12 is good business, because those who have made that contract will collect the differential in pesos with respect to the new exchange rate.
And the fact that a large concentration of contracts is in that position confirms that the probability that the market assigns to a correction to change in the short term remains high.
A skeptical market
The fact that the players in this market look at with more concern is the loss of reserves to which Miguel Pesce is forced, given the low supply by agricultural exporters. Despite the fact that seasonally this is a time of foreign exchange income, this year the Central had to sell, between April 15 and May 11, about $ 722 million.
“There is a perception that the official dollar is behind. Not only with respect to inflation but with respect to the rest of the currencies of the region that were devalued more against the dollar than the Argentine peso, “said an experienced exchange market operator. He added:” Perhaps for this reason, all the world is hoping that at some point the government release the official dollar and there is a new devaluation of the peso. ”
There were many versions that circulated in the last two weeks: that the Government would apply microdevaluations, which would allow the official dollar to increase from $ 5 per month from next June, which would only do so since August, and even that it would begin as soon as the negotiation with creditors is closed. Hence, many eyes are on the behavior that the dollar has this week, taking into account that it is key in the progress of the negotiations with the bondholders.
It is a combination of factors, they point out in the market: the official dollar is behind if it is measured against inflation and even more so when compared to the Brazilian real, and all this occurs in a context of almost total brake on the economy and poor liquidations of dollars by the cereals.
“Something is going to have to happen with the official exchange rate. This level of gap seems unsustainable”, points out a market operator while, like all his colleagues, he expects some kind of gesture from the Central Bank, other than limiting the purchase of dollars through liqui or MEP.
The market observes with concern the loss of reserves that Miguel Pesce should have validated
For now, the eye is skeptical about how effective the latest measures can be to stabilize the market in the medium term.
“At this level of the exchange rate it is not closed to producers to sell their crop, and it seems to me that the conditions are not in place for agricultural producers to sell”, said Rodrigo Alvarez, of the Analytica consultancy, who nevertheless maintained that “a certain decompression may be noted for both measures at the beginning of the week.”
The issuance of pesos is one of the keys to the rise of the dollar, at least he considered it Santiago López Alfaro, from Delphos Investment. “I believe that the dollar rises due to the issuance being made, which unfortunately is the only source of financing that the Government has in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, and also due to the uncertainty that has to do with the arrangement or not of Debt”. And he added: “Of course the very low rates offered, -although the Central has increased them- they cannot compete with the dollar. ”
For López Alfaro “the rest of the measures taken by the Government are technical questions, such as when they limited dollar operations to Mutual funds and the dollar fell two days but then rose again. ” And he predicted that “the same thing can happen now, maybe we will see that at the beginning of the week the free dollars go down a little, but will finally go back up”
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