In the parallel market, the currency is trading at $ 124. Look at what the price of the blue dollar is today and how they quote the dollar Stock market and the cash with liquidation
The Dolar blue Today, Thursday, May 27, 2020, it is trading at $ 124 for sale and $ 114 for the buying end, which represents a drop of two pesos if you take into account what happened the day before.
The parallel ticket it continues its downward trend as it fell 2 pesos on Wednesday, after hitting $ 130 at the beginning of the week.
Meanwhile, despite new controls on the CNV, the stock operations experienced a slight rise. This is the mechanism known as parking, by which you add 5 days to the purchase and sale of public securities by which the dollar MEP or cash with settlement.
In that framework, the counted with liqui It carries out its operations around 110.09 pesos.
For his part, the Dollar Bag or MEP It is located around 106.17 pesos.
In turn, in the wholesale segmentThe US currency traded at $ 68.45, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
As noted above, the Dolar blue It is listed at $ 124 in caves in the downtown area of Buenos Aires.
At official retail market, the US currency ended the wheel at an average of $ 70.69 in agencies and banks in the city of Buenos Aires, so the tourist dollar which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the COUNTRY tax, quoted at $ 91.90.
According to the usual survey that the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, the sale prices were as follows:
– Galicia: $ 70.75
– Nation: $ 70.25
– ICBC: $ 70.70
– Supervielle: $ 70.80
– BBVA: $ 71.50
– Santander: $ 70.50
– HSBC: $ 70.75
– Macro: $ 70.75
The Dolar blue, which is located at $ 124, does not have an official price, but its value comes out of the average price at unofficial exchange places.
The exchange clamp, a measure implemented to control the price of the currency and take care of the Central Bank’s reserves, reactivated parallel market operations, where users seek to avoid the cap of $ 200 a month for savings.
Meanwhile, the risk country It is located around 2,726 basis points.
More stocks and devaluation to stop the bleeding of reserves?
The relative calm of the exchange market It gets more and more expensive and demands more interventionist effort. So much so that, with the validity of the strict stocks that allow you to buy only $ 200 per person per month, and despite new obstacles to hinder the operations of those who want to acquire foreign currency, the demand for dollars at the official price does not stop.
On the contrary, it continues to increase exponentially. Proof of this is the large number of dollars in Bookings that the Central Bank has had to sell in recent months to contain the official price. By doing this, he has managed to get the ticket to $ 70.60.
But it has not come free: only on the two business days of this week – Monday was a holiday – you already had to release 160 million dollars from its coffers, which have already dropped to the level of US $ 42,510 million, that is, 1,065 million dollars less than when the month began. And they are located like this at its lowest level since January 2017.
The loss of reserves is basically explained by the decision of the Central Bank not to allow the depreciation of the peso. Thus, to sustain the official dollar around $ 70 (to which 30% must be added if you want to buy the 200 dollars a month), the monetary authority has been the main seller of foreign exchange: some days it sells 50 million, others 70 millions and others even 100 million dollars.
And this occurs despite the fact that, in theory, this is the time of the year with the greatest exchange rate relief, because that is when the largest seasonal supply of dollars from agricultural exports.
All dollars sold come out of the reservesThat is why the volume has been falling in recent months. And the concern of this bleeding begins to be the subject of conversation in the City: the choice for the Central is to validate a higher rate of devaluation or to think about new restrictions. That is why it is even questioned whether the “mooring” amount of $ 200 per month enabled by the stocks has the assured continuity.
After all, because of that little legal window 248 million dollars escaped in April, adding the demand for tickets plus the purchase of dollarized goods and services. It is a figure that in other circumstances would have seemed insignificant, but which in the current context of restrictions is striking. Not only is it growing, but it also coincides with the “trickle” of bank deposits in dollars.
Many believe that from the government side they begin to see this legal margin for the purchase of foreign currency as a danger factor and consider that, given the background of the “total stocks” that governed during the administration of Cristina Kirchner, the application of a drastic measure in this sense should not be ruled out.
The background noise, once again, is the conviction of the market that sooner or later the devaluation rate will have to accelerate.
“There are many who have a perception that the official dollar is behind. Not only with respect to inflation but with respect to the rest of the region currencies that they devalued more against the dollar than the Argentine peso, “says Sebastián Centurión, analyst at ABC Exchange Market. And he adds: “Perhaps because of this, everyone is waiting for the government at some point to release the official dollar and a new devaluation Of weight”.
The restrictions on “cash with liqui” lowered the volume of the leak but the market remains skeptical.
However, that does not seem to be the Central Bank’s strategy, at least for now. A rumor is circulating in the market that perhaps it would allow the official dollar to rise a little after the government reached an agreement with the bondholders for the debt swap, which is expected to occur before June 30. But for now they are only versions that circulate around the City of Buenos Aires.
Much was said regarding what will be the strategy of the organization that leads Miguel Pesce on the “backwardness” of the official dollar with respect to free dollars (MEP, counted with liqui and blue). There was talk of what would apply micro devaluations to the peso, and also that it would be released more abruptly: even, a WhatsApp audio was circulated in the City in which it was said that from June the official dollar would go up to $ 5 a month until reaching $ 95 or $ 100 at the end of the year.
But so far the Central is concerned with affirming its authority and transmitting a feeling of exchange stability. Throughout the month he was selling dollars from reserves to keep the official exchange rate stable. “The market does not find any suppliers and the Central Bank continues to squander reserves to control the rise in the dollar that is in line with its vision,” says Centurión.
It happens that, for now, the Central has carried out a completely inverse strategy to narrow the “gap” that exists between the official dollar (which only applies to exports and imports) and free dollars. It has implemented a series of restrictions to curb the demand for dollars through the purchase of bonds.
The last obstacle was implemented on May 25 at night the National Value Comission (CNV): obliges those who want to buy dollars through the acquisition of bonds to keep these securities for five business days. I mean, he put “parking” to operations to get MEP dollars and cash.
The collateral effect of “parking”
The strategy was successful, at least in these first days, in which volume decreased notably in both markets, and also prices went down. The dollar MEP stood at $ 105.56 when it had recently reached $ 117, and the counted with liqui closed at $ 109.84 after brushing past $ 120.
On the other hand, the behavior that the blue: After a first rise after the implementation of the parking, it stabilized on Wednesday and closed at $ 127, but nobody dares to forecast its stabilization after reaching peaks of $ 138 a few days ago.
“The Government, through the Central Bank and the CNV, has achieved its objective at least temporarily, because free dollars fell substantially at least in the short term, and it will be much more difficult for investors to dollarize without going through a bond and parking it in a parking lot for five days “says Gustavo Neffa of Research For Traders. But he clarifies: “That does not mean that not going to have bullish pressure again”.
The decrease in the price of free dollars narrowed the “gap” between the official and the other dollars, which came to be close to 100%. This week it is around 60%. However, there are those who assure that the distrust of weight the need to take refuge in dollars is so great and so intense that those who wish to buy them will do so beyond any obstacle that the Central or the CNV put them.
“What you see from the outside is that there is an increasing level of restrictions on the possibility that people have to buy dollars. And when you see so many obstacles, many people think: what is the next step they will take? Will they prohibit the sale of dollars? So before that happens, they buy the dollars -even if they have to wait the five days of parking or pay more expensive- and if they can, they take them outside “, explains Alejandro Henke, economist and partner at Proficio Investment.
Miguel Pesce tries to keep the market under control, but cannot avoid the parallel gap.
Key factor: debt swap
It is clear, then, that there is practically no interest in keeping the pesos and making investments in our currency, even if the Central has set a new floor for interest rates (both wholesale and retail) of 26.6%. It happens that this annual interest rate is very far from the inflation forecasts for this year, they are around 40 or 45%.
And the question that the City has been running since then is who would want to keep pesos and place them at 26.6% interest if inflation will exceed that percentage widely. And, in addition, there is the uncertainty generated by the non-resolution of the debt swap.
“A more or less satisfactory agreement with creditors, and to clear the maturity horizon a little and financing possibilities, could help to reduce the pressure on the dollar, “says Gustavo Quintana de PR Exchange Brokers.
However, for now Quintana observes – like most market operators and analysts – a strong appetite for dollars, which makes many seek dodge obstacles that put the different organisms of the Government and operate in the parallel market.
“That many switch to the blue dollar is a logical consequence of all these restrictions that limit operations in the MEP and cash markets,” says Quintana. And he adds: “If the desire to dollarize is important, people e even some companies seem willing to take the risk to go from white to black, and they buy dollars in the parallel market. ”
In any case, Quintana – convinced that “exchange controls have never worked in Argentina” -, warns that the parallel market is currently very limited.
“It is a market that needs a face-to-face question, so now it is a very small market. But what could be worrying is what will happen to that market when the level of activity returns to a certain normality, it is possible that all that latent demand explode“he predicts.
There, clearly, is where many have their sights set: what will happen when the quarantine ends and the economy begins to get going again. What will the Central Bank’s peso issue level be like then? Where will those pesos go? Will they go to the parallel dollar? If they do, perhaps the forecasts assuring that by the end of the year the blue dollar could be at $ 200 are fulfilled. But for that there is still a long time.
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