A few hours after Argentina, a new default event, uncertainty grows over the coming months in what happens to the economy.
24 hours after Argentina faces a new event of default, the uncertainty about the coming months will rule economy. How far will he go dollar? What will happen to economic activity? And with him unemployment?
These are all distressing questions, in the midst of a pandemic, in principle, because even science has so far been unable to give medical answers about the evolution coronavirus. Nor about an immediate appearance of a vaccine to limit the progression of the disease.
Decisive hours for Martín Guzmán and the Government for the payment of the debt
In this context, putting numbers to expectations on the march of the company has a lot of art and the ability to cross possible scenarios. Not only of the population but also of the economic agents on which the investments depend.
Still, in the midst of economic crisis, the consulting firm Eco Go became one of the most consulted in the City. It was the one that recorded the most successes in its evaluations since the slide of finance and the economy exploded. This has just been recognized by FocusEconomics.
The EcoGo study -which had its origin in the Bein Study- is led by the economist Marina Dal Poggetto, with the team formed by Federico Furiase, Martín Vauthier and Juan Ignacio Paolicchi.
In their last report, the specialists put numbers to the 2020 forecasts.
According to Eco Go, “in a scenario of successful debt negotiation, the pressure on the exchange gap would ease. In any case, in this scenario, given the lower pressure on the gap and inflation expectations, and the strengthening of the margin of demand for assets in pesos, the BCRA It could take advantage of the more favorable expectations scenario to move the official exchange rate a little faster and thus improve the “picture” of the multilateral real exchange rate, given the deterioration in recent weeks compared to the faster devaluation of our trading partners during the shock of the pandemic. “
What will happen to the price of the dollar?
In this context of settlement with creditors, the price of the official dollar by the end of the year it would be around $ 89.70. It is a price consistent with what happened so far.
Since the beginning of the year, the “official” dollar it moved 13%, which in annualized terms would give an increase of 48 percent.
In this context of financial stability (post debt settlement), Eco Go foresees a very complicated scenario in terms of activity and social indices
What is the projection that EcoGo makes on the value of the dollar
For example: the estimated drop in Gross product it would be no less than 8.3%. In this way, this would be the third consecutive year of recession. The fall of this 2020 would be the worst since the historic crisis of 2002.
We must remember that government It already estimated a contraction of 6.5%, which in the eyes of private economists looks optimistic. Even if it looks like a lie.
In Wall street -by case- banks like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley or Credit Suisse and BofA have already estimated that the fall in Argentina’s GDP will be around 8 percent. Goldman Sachs went further: it foresees a collapse of 8.5%
Other variables would also be historical, due to their eventual falls: for the consumption privately, Eco Go predicts a decline of 11%, while the level of investments would drop no less than 25 percent.
In the case of social variables, the index of unemployment It would jump from 9.7% at the end of 2019 to 14% of the economically active population.
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