The last measure seeks to increase the level of risk for companies and savers who turn to the currency. It’s enough? This is what the market says
In its quest to prevent financial dollar prices from continuing to grab the headlines and put devaluatory pressure on the official exchange rate, the Government today limited the purchase of dollars in the Bag.
To get dollars in the financial market, you must buy an asset that is quoted in pesos and sell it against dollars. Until yesterday’s regulation, that operation was immediate. Now, the National Securities Commission (CNV) established that titles must remain 5 business days in the portfolio of the client before being able to transfer them to another account.
In jargon that mechanism is called parking and it affects the operation because add one week between the time of purchase and sale. With this, there is a risk that the resulting exchange rate at the time of accreditation is worse than the one displayed when buying.
Temporary effect
During the first day of operations, the measure sank the prices. Both the Mep dollar and the cash settlement lost 2.9% on today’s wheel. The first closed $ 106.32 (down $ 3.21 on the day) and the second was listed $ 110.64 ($ 3.28 less than Friday).
With those closing numbers, the gap with the official dollar was 55% for the Mep and 65% for the cash with settlement. So both they moved away from the highs 85% and 89%, respectively, that marked in the middle of the month. Despite this, several operators consulted by iProfessional believe the impact will be temporary.
“It is a measure to operate much less. In fact, they succeeded. The first effect was a drop in the price. That happened not only because of the norm but also today the Anses sold some bonds against dollars to help the downside, “said Leonardo Svirsy of Bull Market Brokers.
“In the very short term, the market was very restricted and the price will go down, because the parking of 5 days complicates, “he added. However, the operator does not believe that the effect is lasting.
“In the long term, the dollar has no other direction than to go up. The more restrictive the market, the worse it will be and the price will escape. We continue without economic plan and with uncertainty of the closing of the debt restructuring, which is going to happen but it is not known when, “argued Svirsky.
For his part, Alejandro Bianchi, founder of Asesordeinversiones.com, also made reference to the uncertainty generated by the lack of agreement with creditors. “If I had to wait 5 days with US Treasuries, it would be one thing. But we are talking about parking for Argentine titles in default. You have to keep them in your portfolio for 5 days in the middle of a debt swap and renegotiation process, where there is still no agreement and the parties seem to be far away, “he said.
In a report for its clients, Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) also questioned the future impact of this new stock on the price of the financial dollar. “The point of debate will be the real impact of this measure over time. This beyond the short term, which we understand will have it, and will favor a fall (and some stability). In fact, that the effectiveness is only temporary within the current conjuncture we cannot rule it out, “the report stated.
Boost to the blue dollar
Since the quarantine started they jumped alternative dollar quotes. The reasons are several and range from the strong issuance of pesos with negative real rates to the lack of agreement with creditors.
In this regard, for PPI “other variables will be needed, beyond the restrictions that undoubtedly lock the market, to achieve perhaps curb the fired gaps –Which can even be read more clearly now, perhaps in the marginal– “.
Is that, analysts agree, the reaction of those who went to the stock market to get tickets will be turn to the blue dollar against the new restrictions. In fact, the exchange rate in the informal circuit advanced $ 3 to $ 129 today.
On this point, Bianchi also stated: “By putting operational risk, there is a greater uncertainty. The exchange rate is not closed immediately. It is bought in pesos and it is not known at what value the operation will be closed when it is sold against dollars. That puts the financial dollar in inferior conditions against the blue, where the exchange rate closes immediately”
Rearm the market
Every time a regulation is known, the market has to shuffle and give again. Is about look for alternatives to try to continue operating as normally as possible. Analysts believe that it will take a few days but eventually it will happen.
“The market is always rearranging and looking for new mechanisms. It will take a few days, because the Mep and the settlement are based on supply and demand. If some sellers start to appear, the market is going to arm again and operations will continue to exist. Equally it will be necessary to adapt to the norm and to make the parking “, indicated Svirsky.
The market will seek new alternatives to return to normal operations
“In the short term there is a demand retraction of a financial dollar due to the need to comply with the new regulations, “said a stock market operator who preferred anonymity. However, he predicted:”The operation will not be paralyzed“
In addition, the operator highlighted that today there was a divergence between the dollar price that was achieved with stocks and bonds. While the latter fell to the $ 110 zone, the exchange rate you get through the sale of shares it remained around $ 115. Is that outside you can rent the titles while the parking 5 days.
It is a complex operation, reserved for specialists. This is how he explained it: “You can buy here, sell abroad and rent the securities to your foreign agent during the necessary days until the transfer can be made. That is much more automatic with stocks than with bonds. In part, that’s why there is a difference between cash settlement according to the instrument with which it is made “.
A measure that is not surprising
The standard published by the National Securities Commission is part of a series of decisions that aim to hinder the purchase of dollars on the stock market. In most cases, the downward effect on prices lasted a few days. The most important among them were:
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