In a context of expectation for what happens with the debt swap, the US currency continues to accelerate in the informal market
The blue dollar is offered this afternoon at 124 pesos in “caves” of the Buenos Aires downtown, and thus reached a new maximum price, being 2 pesos above the closing of last Friday.
In just over four months, the informal dollar grew 66% more expensive.
Meanwhile, the wholesale exchange rate rose 10 cents this Monday to 67.37 pesos, also a maximum value for this segment.
The dollars linked to the stock market activity also operated on the rise: the cash with settlement was offered at 117 pesos, and the MEP at 114 pesos, in both cases, almost two pesos above the last closing.
Meanwhile, the retailer remained at 69.25 pesos on Banco Nación screens, while the tourist stood at 90.03 pesos.
According to the latest Survey of Market Expectations (REM) that the Central Bank carries out monthly, the nominal exchange rate will be at 85.40 pesos in December of this year.
The stock market, on the rise
The leading shares of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange rose 2.25% this afternoon, while dollar bonds climbed up to 6%, after the government’s decision to extend the term to negotiate with the bondholders.
In the stock market, the S&P MerVal indicator stood at 37,047.15 points, with an amount traded in shares of 511.7 million pesos.
YPF (1.09%), Aluar (1.37%), Cresud (1.30%), Cresud (1.30%) and Edenor (1.34%) stood out.
The Buenosairean Stock Exchange recovers in the middle of the tension by the debt.
Public debt bonds, meanwhile, rose as much as 5.6% (as in the case of AY24).
The Country Risk Index stood at 3,245 basis points, 74 units below the previous closing.
Near the Government they see an official dollar at $ 95 and the “blue” at $ 200
The distance between the $ 67 that the “official” dollar trades and the $ 115, $ 118 or $ 122 that the free dollars (in its MEP versions, counted with liquidation and blue) it is increasingly wide, and already exceeds 80%. However, everything indicates that the worst has not yet been seen, at least judging by the rumors that circulated in the Buenos Aires City in recent days, in which sources very close to the Casa Rosada warn that at the end of the year the dollar Officer will be around $ 95, and the “cash with liqui” or blue would be worth $ 200.
In other words, expectations are being raised among the officials themselves thatthe distance between the parallel and the official exchange rate could be around 100%.
What a mysterious source that claims to be very close to the Patria Institute and the Callao Group assures is that the government it will let the dollar run after fixing the debt situation with creditors. In any case, that greater willingness to devalue the currency would not be enough to narrow the gap with the blue.
“The idea is, after the debt swap is fixed, to let it go up to $ 5 per month, and thus reach $ 95 in December”, points out a political operator who assures that he has just participated in an important meeting of teams from the government. The audio, which has already circulated through several of the money tables in the Buenos Aires downtown, anticipates that “the blue or the other dollars will be at $ 200.”
The forecast is scary. But for many of the City analysts it doesn’t seem impossible. In fact, several believe that the Government has failed in its multiple attempts to control the rise that the dollars have been registering. MEP and counted with liqui, They are the most demanded by companies, since it is impossible for them to switch to the blue dollar, an illegal way of getting dollars that, in addition, involves turning white money into black.
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