bonds with higher potential to rise, according to Consultatio

A Consultatio report suggests that the government’s approach with creditors is a good “trigger” for the purchase of bonds.

In the last week the increases were very limited, which would be giving investors additional time. According to an analysis published today, taking into account the dance offerings and the new proposal that Argentina will present, the appreciation that could be expected reaches 40% in dollars compared to current prices.

“The problems of coordination between creditors that seemed to arise were mitigated considerably after versions that indicate that one of the main funds would be willing to marginally reduce their expectations. We believe that there are several points in common and we see feasible a close up greater in the claims of each of the parties, “they point out in the document.

“At these levels, we believe there is value in debt: with the counter-offer NPVs, current prices have a 60% probability of agreement implicit. For us, the probability of agreement is higher. Given that there is a case to think about that the yield curve could be inverted, the greatest attraction is seen in medium and long Globals “, they added from Consultatio.

Is there value in debt? Analysts ask. Faced with this proposal, they affirmed that “there are several reasons that justify that the probability of a successful debt settlement has increased significantly.”

Then, they considered it striking that, in this context, the bonds they did not have a too stellar performance: until this week they had been rising only 1.2% compared to last Friday.

However, they pointed out that, if there is an agreement, then the potential to rise of the bonds exceeds 40% in dollars.

“The greatest attraction is found in the long and middle part of the global ones. The long part has a very attractive upside potential with the counter offer of the Global Bonds Committee, while it is also acceptable in the case of the Ad Hoc Committee proposal. (We prefer AA48 and AC17.) The middle part has quite similar returns in both, around 40% (we prefer AA36), “they detailed in the report.

Instead, they warned that “short bonds don’t look attractive” and “perhaps that’s why they didn’t rise this week.”

“Finally, the potential of the Exchange bonds is much less than the Global ones since their Committee’s offer was much lighter in terms of NPV,” they concluded.

For experts, a settlement with creditors will positively impact securities

Bonuses: what they recommend in the City

As for the specific roles that analysts consulted by iProfessional to make a good investment, the answers revolve around conservative options in bonds and Actions.

In this sense, Daniel Vicien, Commercial director of FCI of Balance, indicates to this medium that “many operations of Yield, but also of dollar MEP, money of money market to have liquidity, some of bonds and investments abroad”.

And he adds: “The companies aim to have liquidity, to keep the pesos invested in T + 0 funds.”

Also, complete that they are being carried out investments mainly dollarized and, “depending on the horizon of investment and profile of risk, the Cedears, that is to buy in pesos shares listed on the NYSE, and corporate bonds of excellent quality. ”

While, Gustavo Neffaanalyst Research For Traders, he says iProfessional that strategy targets Sovereign bonds in Dollars, which “improved on the last wheels compared to expectations of a debt settlement, but continue to depend on a political decision of wanting to agree or not with creditors and they are not part of our strategy of investment”

In this sense, he says that his recommendations are still sustained in bonds in pesos in the short term, like the TJ20, and with a little more duration the TC21 (adjusts for CER), the TB21 (Badlar) and TX21 (CER) and Reprinted letters.

“Honored the Lecaps that were winning on the way, we must seek to stretch maturities: July, August and October, with parities of 94%, 92% and 85%, respectively “, summarizes Neffa.

It also indicates that some ONs Dollar Linked and “others will come to cover the exchange rate. There we like the recent emissions of Pan American Energy at 18 months and IRSA, also of low duration “, completes. Likewise, in dollars it prefers bonds shorts of Buenos aires city, or some corporate “Panamerican 2021 or Tecpetrol 2022, among others”.

For his part, Abuchdid says that in the face of this lower risk, longer bonds such as the Discount in pesos and TX24 would be those with “higher expected upside”. “We also see value in Badlar bonds As the PBA25 and PBY22. We hope that this movement will be reflected in earnings between 10% and 35%, depending on the bond chosen, “he stresses.

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